000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 07N ALONG 88W HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS.  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
ENHANCE WAVE DEEP CONVECTION.  DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASE 
WIND SHEAR WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS DIMINISHING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.   

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 81W N OF 08N FOLLOWS CLOSE BEHIND 
ENJOYING PREVIOUS WAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FIELD AND TO A LESS 
EXTENT ITS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE E 
PAC OF WAVE AXIS DOES HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE ADVERSE WIND SHEAR AND 
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN 
THIS SYSTEM.  

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 07N81W TO 08N87W TO 06N108W TO 09N126W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS E OF 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL STACKED DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS INTO E PAC NEAR 32N125W 
EXTENDING SW TO 26N135W.  DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SURFACE 
TROUGH AT SIMILAR COORDINATES STATIONARY THROUGH 48 HRS AS  
STUBBORN MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 23N124W BLOCK ANY 
FURTHER EASTWARD MOVE.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR MASS 
MAKES AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W VERY DRY.  WEAKENING UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE INTO BASIN E OF 110W WHILE PROMPTING HEALTHY OUTFLOW  
TO TWO TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED IN TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB WELL N OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
SECOND WEAKER CENTER 1017 MB AT 25N124W.  LITTLE ELSE BUT DRY 
STABLE AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE.  WEAK BUT STUBBORN TROUGH ALONG 
128W FROM 08N-15N PROVIDE ENOUGH GRADIENT WITH RIDGE TO WARRANT 
FRESH TRADES ON ITS W SIDE.  
  
FRESH S TO SW BREEZE PERSIST OVER TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N FROM 
85W AND 105W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL.

$$
WALLY BARNES