000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 85W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N110W TO 12N128W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 08N94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE IS DISSIPATING NEAR 09N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N126W AND EXTENDS S ALONG 
20N132W TO A BASE AT 11N132W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 30N126W TO 26N138W AND IS MOVING E FOLLOWED BY NE WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 8 FT. A SECOND LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS INDUCED IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS ALONG 10N128W TO 15N131W WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY 
FLARING WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N130W. GENERALLY EXPECTING A NE TO E 
WIND SHIFT AT 20 KT ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS IN THE SAME 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED FROM 08N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AND ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ EARLIER BUT IT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THESE TWO AREAS FANS OUT FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 
120W AND 136W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY W OF 120W.
    
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 31N107W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM 28N114W TO 24N123W. A SECOND UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 20N98W WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
120W. HOWEVER...THIS BROAD RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EMBEDDED 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N115W TO 22N112W AND PROGRESSING W 
WITH TIME. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 122W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE ITCZ E OF 94W...WITH DENSE 
UPPER MOISTURE INDICATED FROM 05N TO 20N E OF 103W.

S TO SW WINDS PERSIST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL 
WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.

$$
NELSON