000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 84W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE N OF 12N ALONG 
83W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG 92W IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N 
TO 13N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N110W TO 12N128W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N80W TO 08N86W TO 07N95W... 
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 08N103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 08N123W TO 12N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N123W AND EXTENDS S TO A 
BASE AT 11N132W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N128W 
TO 27N135W AND IS MOVING E FOLLOWED BY NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 
FT. A SECOND LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS INDUCED IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
ALONG 130W FROM 10N TO 15N WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY FLARING 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 13.5N130W. GENERALLY EXPECTING A NE TO E WIND 
SHIFT AT 20 KT ALONG THE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W 
AND ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ EARLIER. THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THESE TWO AREAS FANS OUT FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 
120W AND 137W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY W OF 120W.
    
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 31N108W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM 28N110W TO 26N120W. A SECOND UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 20N94W WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
114W. HOWEVER...THIS BROAD RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EMBEDDED 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N112W TO 24N109W AND PROGRESSING W 
WITH TIME. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 120W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND OVER THE ITCZ WITH DENSE UPPER 
MOISTURE INDICATED FROM 07N TO 22N E OF 100W.

S TO SW WINDS PERSIST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL 
WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN S 
SWELL.

$$
NELSON