000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W N OF 12N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 92W-96W. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT A WEAL MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N92.5W. THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST CROSSING THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...MOVING W 16 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SHOULD MOVE TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THOSE COUNTRIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 90W THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 8N92W 10N102W 7N115W 12N126W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-11N E OF 90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 137W-139W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED E OF THE AREA ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ...AND SW TO A COL REGION NEAR 26N118W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR 26N132W WITH A RIDGE NW OF THE REGION AT 32N138W.30W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 27N...AND ANOTHER ONE ALONG 32N124W TO 26N122W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE N/CENTRAL U.S. TO ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND FURTHER SW TO JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N131W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS WESTWARD FROM THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE LOW TO DROP SW TO NEAR 33N127W BY MON MORNING...AND TO NEAR 32N129W BY TUE MORNING AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE TROUGH. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT BY THE AREAS OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 20N...AND VERY LIMITED AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOW HAVING ENTERED THE EASTERN SECTION OF THIS PORTION OF THE REGION E OF ABOUT 119W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE STRENGTHS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N137W TO NEAR 25N127W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 120W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS ALONG 130W FROM 11N TO 18N DRIFTING W. THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N126W AND ANOTHER ONE JUST S OF THE AREA BETWEEN 118W AND 139W IS DIFFLUENT ENOUGH OVER THE TROUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ALONG THE TROUGH ...AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W-125W. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 12N101W. TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 108W AND N OF 12N. UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS THE THE TROUGH AND TO THE S OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND IS RESULTING IN INCREASING NE-E UPPER LEVEL WINDS W OF THE TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 95W...WESTWARD TO NEAR 106W. S TO SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE PRESENT S OF 7N BETWEEN 84W AND 103W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL. BY 48 HRS THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN AREA MARKED FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 85W-105W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MAINLY A S SWELL AS FORECAST BY LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ AGUIRRE