000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111011
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 11N HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM E OF AXIS.  FAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED SYSTEM TO DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED DEEP 
CONVECTION INTO N NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS EARLIER TONIGHT. EL 
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA SHOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITHIN 
NEXT 24-36 HRS AS SYSTEM CONTINUES W AND REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 07N98W TO 08N116W TO 11N125W TO 08N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 121W 
AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND W ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHIFT SW TO SECOND GYRE AT 
28N130W AND CONTINUE BEYOND 27N140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDING FLOW MAINTAINS AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 128W S OF 17N KEEPS DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ABOVE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 129W FROM 08N TO 17N 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ALONG ITCZ FROM 
121W-131W.  

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1033 MB NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
SE TO 17N115W.  WEAK LOW PRES INLAND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
MAINTAIN TIGHT...BUT LOOSENING...GRADIENT ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST N OF 24N.  FRESH NW BREEZE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 
KT EARLY SUN.

FRESH S TO SW BREEZE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE S OF 06N E OF 120W 
WITH SWELLS UP TO 9 FT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES