000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N82W TO 06N90W TO 09N105W TO 12N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... ...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR JULY TO CONTINUE OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE MOVING N 10 KT NEAR 26N129W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 22N140W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 90 NM IN DIAMETER JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N115W WAS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES WNW AT 15 KT. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE REGION NEAR 15N147W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO A COL NEAR 24N145W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NRN PACIFIC SW TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N141W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS AREA E OF ABOUT 115W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE REGION NEAR 39N149W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 30N130W TO 21N115W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 8N130W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N130W...AND N TO 15N131W MOVING W 5 KT. THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N129W AND A SMALLER ONE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 2N125W HAS BECOME DIFFLUENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND LOW RESULTING IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. E OF 110W... A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N92W AND MEXICO NEAR 20N104W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE EASTERN CIRCULATION HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS W AND SW TO ALONG 110W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 92W. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 24N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WITH TO 8 FT IN S SWELL...THEN OVER THE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS S OF 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W IN 48 HRS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS FORECAST BY LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ COBB