000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 7N8WW 9N102W 8N114W 11N128W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-103W. ...DISCUSSION... ...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR JULY TO CONTINUE OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE MOVING N 10 KT NEAR 25N129.5W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES S TO 10N130W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER...JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N115W WAS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES WNW AT 15-20 KT. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE REGION NEAR 15N146W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO A COL NEAR 24N145W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NRN PACIFIC SW TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ONLY FRACTURED PATCHES OF DISSOLVING UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED APPROACHING 32N W OF 138W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS AREA E OF ABOUT 113W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE REGION NEAR 38N147W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 28N128W TO 23N121W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 7N130W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N130W...AND N TO 16N130W MOVING W 6 KT. THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N129.5W AND A SMALLER ONE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 2N123W HAS BECOME DIFFLUENT INCLUDING THAT OVER THE TROUGH AND LOW RESULTING IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N92W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS W AND SW TO ALONG 110W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 92W. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 29N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WITH TO 8 FT IN S SWELL...THEN FORECAST OVER THE WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 81W AND 108W IN 48 HRS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS FORECAST BY LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101604 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 7N8WW 9N102W 8N114W 11N128W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-103W. ...DISCUSSION... ...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR JULY TO CONTINUE OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE MOVING N 10 KT NEAR 25N129.5W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES S TO 10N130W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER...JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N115W WAS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES WNW AT 15-20 KT. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE REGION NEAR 15N146W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO A COL NEAR 24N145W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NRN PACIFIC SW TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ONLY FRACTURED PATCHES OF DISSOLVING UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED APPROACHING 32N W OF 138W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS AREA E OF ABOUT 113W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE REGION NEAR 38N147W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 28N128W TO 23N121W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 7N130W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N130W...AND N TO 16N130W MOVING W 6 KT. THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N129.5W AND A SMALLER ONE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 2N123W HAS BECOME DIFFLUENT INCLUDING THAT OVER THE TROUGH AND LOW RESULTING IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N92W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS W AND SW TO ALONG 110W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 92W. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 29N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WITH TO 8 FT IN S SWELL...THEN FORECAST OVER THE WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 81W AND 108W IN 48 HRS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS FORECAST BY LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ AGUIRRE