000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 06N88W TO 09N102W TO 07N116W TO 10N128W TO 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W-134W. 
 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND SW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 
23N129W THEN CONTINUE BEYOND 24N140W.  WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH FROM 22N118W TO 29N113W UNDERCUTS RIDGE AS IT MOVES NW  
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO SPLIT IT INTO TWO SEPARATE 
ANTICYCLONES AS CUT-OFF CYCLONE DIVES SE FROM WELL N OF AREA TO 
NEAR 32N129W.  CONVERGING FLOW ALOFT CAUSES MODERATE TO STRONG 
DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF 115W...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PARAGRAPH 
BELOW.

MINOR ANTICYCLONIC GYRE NEAR 07N137W FORCING AREA OF DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT OVER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG 130W FROM 
07N-15N ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION.  WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EMBEDDED IN TROUGH AND DRIFT NW THROUGH SUN 
NIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
INTENSIFICATION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1031 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE 
THROUGH 30N138W TO 15N115W.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON SE PERIPHERY 
OF RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 108W FROM 11N-17N. 

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND JUST S OF EL SALVADOR TO 11N.  WAVE 
USHERS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO E PAC AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATE ITS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE 
BEYOND NEXT 48 HRS.  STRONG DEEP CONVECTION E SIDE OF WAVE AXIS 
PRESENTLY AFFECTING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 

FRESH NW WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 24N EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 24 HRS.

MODERATE SE TO S BREEZE CONTINUE S OF 06N FROM 120W TO 130W 
EXPECTED TO REACH 08N FROM 80W TO 110W WITHIN 48 HRS.  SOUTHERLY 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT DURING NEXT 
48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES