000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100222 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N82W TO 10N102W TO 08N115W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... ...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR JULY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD THROUGH NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N127W THEN CONTINUING TO 20N135W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 27N112W WAS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES W AT 15-20 KT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN E-W ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE REGION NEAR 13N145W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO A COL NEAR 24N140W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NRN PACIFIC SW TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N139W. ONLY FRACTURED PATCHES OF DISSOLVING UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED APPROACHING 32N W OF 132W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE REGION NEAR 41N143W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 30N138W TO 23N125W TO 22N110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 15N128W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N129W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW ARE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 133W AS THEY DRIFT TO THE NW. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE S OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS W AND SW TO ALONG 110W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION WERE ERUPTING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM MEXICO AND THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA GENERALLY N OF 24N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W THROUGH 24 HRS... THEN OVER THE WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W IN 48 HRS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. $$ COBB