000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 10N95W TO 14N105W TO 08N115W TO 
10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 133W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

...DISCUSSION...

...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

W OF 110W...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
MEXICO AND WRN TEXAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SSW TO 18N130W. A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 27N110W WAS 
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES W AT 10 KT OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
JUST W OF THE REGION NEAR 13N144W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 
NEAR 25N137W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NRN 
PACIFIC NW TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ONLY FRACTURED 
PATCHES OF DISSOLVING UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED APPROACHING 32N W 
OF 132W. MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP 
FROM THE TROUGH NE OF THE AREA...AND MIGRATE SW TOWARDS THE FAR 
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN INTO MON.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE PATCHES OF MOSTLY  
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE
FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE REGION NEAR 38N145W 
WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 30N138W TO 23N125W
TO 22N110W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N AND W OF 120W. A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 15N129W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N128W. THIS TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 133W AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. THE TROUGH AND LOW ARE DRIFTING TO THE W. 

E OF 110W...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SRN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE S OVER THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH 
THE ANTICYCLONE OVER EXTREME NRN MEXICO IS RESULTING IN AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NE TO E WINDS OVER MEXICO 
WHICH EXTEND W AND SW TO ALONG 110W. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO AND THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC 
WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W.

NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM 23N TO 27N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 
36 HRS.

SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W THROUGH 24 HRS... 
THEN OVER THE WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W IN 48 HRS.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ACROSS
THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
COBB