000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 8N90W 9N100W 7N111W 9N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-95W AND 100W-103W. ...DISCUSSION... ...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE SSW TO 13N126W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD EXTENDS ALONG 116W FROM 9N TO 19N. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE REGION NEAR 13N142W WITH A TROUGH NE TO NEAR 25N136W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO JUST N OF THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ONLY FRACTURED PATCHES OF DISSOLVING UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED APPROACHING 32N W OF 132W. MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TROUGH NE OF THE AREA...AND MIGRATE SW TOWARDS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN INTO MON. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE REGION NEAR 37N147W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 28N135W TO 26N125W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N AND W OF 125W. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 8N125W TO 15N128.5W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 128W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALONG 128W FROM 12N TO 19N. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE SW TO NORTHERN HONDURAS. THE CIRCULATION PATTERN AROUND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THAT OF THE ONE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR UPPER LEVEL NE TO E WINDS TO SPREAD W AND SW TO JUST W OF 110W. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ WESTWARD TO NEAR 108W. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 36 HRS. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W THROUGH 24 HRS... THEN OVER THE WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W IN 48 HRS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE