000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 11N100W 8N113W 12N126W 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 85W-89W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 100W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N120W WITH A RIDGE
WSW TO WELL BEYOND THE AREA AT 26N140W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM THE RIDGE EASTWARD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NW 
MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER 
STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AS EVIDENT IN THE 
PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED WITH A FIELD OF 
SIMILAR CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND 
DATA REVEALED STRONG ELY WINDS ENTERING THE FAR SE PORTION OF 
THIS AREA. 

A STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE DEEP TROPICAL 
PACIFIC NEAR 10N141W WITH A TROUGH SE TO 5N131W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N140W TO 23N126W. HIGH
PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N AND W OF 127W. A WEAK LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ALONG 128W FROM 12N TO 19N. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN NEARLY 
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.

E OF 110W...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NW TO FAR 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH MOVING W OVER MEXICO AND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 28N120W
IS ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL NE TO E WINDS TO SPREAD W AND SW 
TO JUST W OF 110W. THESE WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT OF
A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN TO EXIST S OF 12N ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 99W AND 110W...AND BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION IS SPREADING W...BUT ERODING 
JUST W OF 110W.

NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM 23N TO 26N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN
36 HRS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W...AND
S OF 6N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...93W AND 113W AND ALSO S OF 8N W OF
121W BY 48 HRS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THESE
WIND AREA.

$$
AGUIRRE