000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N104W TO 06N116W TO 11N127W TO 
07N136W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
06N82W TO 08N91W TO 09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 15 NM OF 15N95W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 26N131W WITH 
A RIDGE W TO WELL BEYOND 24N140W...AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO 
NEAR 27N110W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF 20N W OF 110W. 
   
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 06N138W. 
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING ALONG 17N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 147W.  OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 21N W OF 
107W.

A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 20N87W WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
120W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS IS SPREADING W OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 07N E OF 105W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 27N140W TO NEAR 13N120W. NORTHERLY 
SWELLS...DRIVING SEAS UP TO 9 FT...ARE FOUND OVER THE WATERS N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 124W AND 134W...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT 
LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA S OF 
26N FOR A FEW DAYS. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER 
THE WATERS S OF 10N FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 
ARE RESULTANT IN SEAS TO 10 FT S OF 10N.

$$
NELSON