000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
05N79.5W AND 07N90W AND ALSO 09N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 
92W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 07W ROUGHLY ALONG 89W. CONVECTION IS 
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE AND PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N130W WITH A RIDGE 
W TO WELL BEYOND 26N140W...AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO 
27N116W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AT 
27N113W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF 2N W OF 112W. 
   
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 18N110W TO 16N120W AND INTO AN 
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 06N135W. UPPER 
DEBRIS MOISTURE...THAT ORIGINATED FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER 
CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...IS ADVECTED W SW WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE FROM 23N105W TO 16N130W WHERE IT MERGES WITH UPPER 
MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM OF 15N120W...AND ALSO 
PRESENT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 15N TO 02N BETWEEN 13W AND 
145W.
  
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
115W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AS WELL AS OVER THE E PACIFIC. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM ALL OF THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS IS SPREADING W OVER THE 
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO NEAR 15N117W. NORTHERLY 
SWELLS DRIVING SEAS UP TO 9 FT ARE FOUND OVER THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 137W...AND SHOULD DIMINISH 
BELOW 8 FT BY LATE THU. NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA FOR A FEW DAYS. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL 
WATERS S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 108W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT 
RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 
KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SWELL...RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT...IS NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE 
AREA W OF 80W AND S OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AT 15N TO 06N 
140W AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE OF DAYS.

$$
NELSON