000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N100W TO 09N120W TO 07N135W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 
85W AND 92W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 07N MOVE W AT 10 KT BRINGS 
PRECIPITATION TO SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS ENTERED AN UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT AND COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS. THE 
SOUTHERN PART OF WAVE S OF 12N HOWEVER HAS EASTERLY SHEAR 
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT IN THE PACIFIC. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 26N125W 
DOMINATE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W WITH E-W RIDGE ALONG 26N FROM N 
MEXICO TO 140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR COVERS AREA UNDER ANTICYCLONE INCLUDING NW MEXICO AND SW 
CONUS.  RIDGE ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON ITS SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY INTO E PAC FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ALONG ITCZ ACROSS 
TROPICS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1033 MB WELL N OF AREA NEAR 47N137W HAS RIDGE AXIS 
EXTEND SE THROUGH 15N115W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND 
LOW PRES CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LOCALIZED 
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF NW COAST OF CALIFORNIA...N OF DISCUSSION 
AREA BUT PROMPTING N SWELLS OF TO SPREAD S INTO E PAC N OF 25N W 
OF 120W.

S SWELL TRAIN FROM ACROSS EQUATOR FINALLY WEAKENING OVER E PAC 
BUT NEW SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS CROSSES EQUATOR INTO E PAC S OF 
06N E OF 110W TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

$$
FORMOSA