000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N93W TO 07N104W TO 07N125W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S AND 75 N 
OF AXIS E OF 101W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 12N MOVE N-NW AT 10 KT BRINGS HEAVY 
PRECIPITATION TO SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.  WAVE CREST 
APPROACHING YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS ENTERED AN UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
AND COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.  SOUTHERN 
PART OF WAVE NOT AS MUCH FAVORED HAS MORE OF EASTERLY SHEAR 
CURTAILING ITS DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS WEAK   
ANTICYCLONE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 48 HRS WITH MODERATE SHEAR 
OVER SOUTH HALF OF WAVE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 26N125W 
DOMINATE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W WITH E-W RIDGE ALONG 26N FROM N 
MEXICO TO 140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR COVERS AREA UNDER ANTICYCLONE INCLUDING NW MEXICO AND SW 
CONUS.  RIDGE ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON ITS SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY INTO E PAC FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ALONG ITCZ ACROSS 
TROPICS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1036 MB WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE AXIS EXTEND SE 
THROUGH 15N112W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES 
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LOCALIZED GALE FORCE 
WINDS OFF NW COAST OF CALIFORNIA...N OF DISCUSSION AREA BUT 
PROMPTING N SWELLS OF TO SPREAD S INTO E PAC N OF 25N W OF 120W.

S SWELL TRAIN FROM ACROSS EQUATOR FINALLY WEAKENING OVER E PAC 
BUT NEW SURGE OF WARM MOIST STRONG SW WINDS CROSSES EQUATOR INTO 
E PAC S OF 06N E OF 110W TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

$$
WALLY BARNES