000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060226
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W TO 10N103W TO 07N114W 11N130W TO 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ALONG 87W MOVING NW AT 10 
KT AS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL SWEEP BY TO THE N OF 
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IMPACT MEXICO AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OVER THE N 
PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVING INTO BELIZE 
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 26N124W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 
110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W 
INCLUDING NW MEXICO. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH 
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 24N140W. A 
BELT OF EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 45-60 KT S OF THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA FROM 12N-20N
BETWEEN 110W-135W ARE ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD 
ACROSS THE TROPICS. A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE WAS NOTED OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 140W WITH A MEAN CENTER 
NEAR 06N128W. FURTHER SE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE S OF 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W 
AND 87W. 

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES 1035 MB CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 44N138W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 
30N133W TO 24N125W TO 19N110W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE E SIDE 
OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE NW 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH 
WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH 
48 HOURS...N SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL CROSS INTO THE AREA N OF 
25N W OF 120W WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

S-SW SWELL TRAIN FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH PERIODS OF 13-15 SECONDS ACROSS 
THE REGION. A NEW SWELL TRAIN IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE EQUATOR E 
OF 110W TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH SIMILAR PERIODS. OTHERWISE NEW 
SURGE OF WARM MOIST STRONG SW WINDS CROSSES EQUATOR INTO E PAC S 
OF 06N E OF 90W TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.

$$
COBB