000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 08N79W TO 08N100W TO 07N115W TO 10N125W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER NICARAGUA ALONG 87W MOVING W 10-12 KT AS 
AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS ABOUT TO BRUSH THE E PACIFIC.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER THE N PORTION 
OF THE WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVING INTO BELIZE AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 27N124W DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 
110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W 
INCLUDING NW MEXICO. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH 
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 23N140W. 
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 40-45 KT S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 110W-135W ARE ADVECTING MID AND 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICS. FURTHER SE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE S OF ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. 

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES 1035 MB CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 44N139W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N133W 
TO 24N125W TO 19N110W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE E SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE NW COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA...WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS 
OVER THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH 48 
HOURS...N SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL CROSS INTO THE AREA N OF 25N 
W OF 120W WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

S-SW SWELL TRAIN FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH PERIODS OF 14-16 SECONDS ACROSS 
THE REGION. A NEW SWELL TRAIN IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE EQUATOR E 
OF 110W TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH SIMILAR PERIODS. OTHERWISE NEW 
SURGE OF WARM MOIST STRONG SW WINDS CROSSES EQUATOR INTO E PAC S 
OF 06N E OF 90W TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.

$$
COBB