000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 9N115W 7N125W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 88W-93W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER NICARAGUA ABOUT TO ENTER E PAC NEAR 86W LATER 
TODAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER THE N 
PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
27N125W DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 
110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W.  AN 
E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING W 
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 23N140W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
40-45 KT ARE S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 14N-20N 
BETWEEN 110W-135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 2N120W WITH TROUGH 
FROM THE CIRCULATION NW TO 10N135W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W.  
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN E SIDE OF RIDGE PRODUCING GALE FORCE N 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
MAKE TO THE AREA S OF 32N BUT LARGE NLY SWELL ARE FORECAST TO 
BE N OF 25N W OF 120W BY TUE.

LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL TRAIN FROM SRN HEMISPHERE SPREADS 
NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SWELLS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOME BY TUE THEN INCREASE OVER THE FAR SE 
PORTION OF THE AREA BY WED.

NEW SURGE OF WARM MOIST STRONG SW WINDS CROSSES EQUATOR INTO E 
PAC S OF 06N E OF 90W BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

$$
DGS