000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 07N97W TO 11N115W TO 08N129W TO 08N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 101W AND 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 137W.  

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER NICARAGUA ABOUT TO ENTER E PAC NEAR 86W EARLY 
MON BRINGS SCATTERED CONVECTION W OF ITS AXIS N OF 07N.  WAVE 
CREST HAS VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WITH POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION WITHIN NEXT 24-48 HRS. 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS FAVORABLE IN E PAC...SO CHANCES 
OF STRENGTHENING NOT AS GOOD.  CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE 
AFTER 48 HRS. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 27N126W DOMINATES MOST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 12N W OF 113W WITH DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS.  
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHERN MEXICO TO SECOND SMALLER ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS BIG 
BEND.  SECOND GYRE PROMOTES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER SURFACE 
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO SIERRA MADRE.  VERY MOIST 
AIR MASS LEFT OVER BY FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX PROMPTING 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1036 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS SURFACE RIDGE EXTEND SE 
ACROSS E PAC TO 18N112W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN E SIDE OF RIDGE 
PROMPTING GALE FORCE N WINDS WHICH DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE 
ARRIVING NEAR 32N.  SO WHILE N WINDS REMAIN MODERATE IN THE 
NORTHERN FRINGES OF BASIN...N-NW SWELL ENCROACH INTO E PAC N OF 
25N MERGING WITH ESTABLISHED S-SW SWELL AND CREATING CONFUSED 
SEAS.   

LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL TRAIN FROM SRN HEMISPHERE SPREADS 
NORTHWARD THROUGH ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.  WAVE PERIODS NOW 
DIMINISHING AND THREAT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS 
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED SHOALS...REEFS AND BEACHES SLOWLY 
EASING.

NEW SURGE OF WARM MOIST STRONG SW BREEZE CROSSES EQUATOR INTO E 
PAC S OF 06N E OF 88W LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.  IMPACT OF THIS 
EVENT ON TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING E PAC FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS IT IS BEYOND SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES