000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 09N85W TO 08N95W TO 10N115W TO 07N130W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 05N E OF 84W TO 
THE COAST OF PANAMA. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG 84W/85W WAS REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY 
TO THE E AND TILTS TO THE NNE ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 10-12 KT
AS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WITHIN 
60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.

...DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
24N129W DOMINATED MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALLER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL 
TEXAS. RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS WWD TO JUST S OF HAWAII. A VAST AREA 
OF STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 110W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION WERE ERUPTING FROM
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SWD OVER THE SIERRA MADRE TO 20N WITH SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE WAS BEING ADVECTED TO THE W AND SW OVER WRN MEXICO AND 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 130W BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE TO E 
WINDS TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. 

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A SMALL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N93W 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 12N105W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW 
HAD ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ SE OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 100W IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY 
FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS. 

AT THE SURFACE A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 42N141W WITH A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N133W TO 
20N110W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER 
THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND SW CONUS HAS RELAXED TO THE POINT THAT 
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 20N. THIS OVERALL 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS.  

LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL TRAIN FROM SRN HEMISPHERE HAS SPREAD 
NORTHWARD THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA WITH OVERALL 
WAVE PERIODS DECREASING AND THE THREAT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES 
AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED SHOALS...REEFS AND 
BEACHES IS GRADUALLY EASING. THE S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
BY TUE WITH N TO NE SWELL ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
MARINE FORECAST AREA BY THEN. 

$$
COBB