000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N83W TO 11N95W TO 06N130W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W AND WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 110W.  

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 05N MOVING W AT 15 KT HAS SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN ITCZ E OF AXIS.  WAVE CREST OVER 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ENHANCED BY AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT ON SOUTH PART OF AXIS IS MORE ADVERSE FOR NEXT 24-36 
HRS THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.   

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 22N130W HAS RIDGE EXTEND NE WELL INTO 
SW CONUS WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 22N104W STILL SUPPORTS DEEP 
LAYER OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF WHAT USED TO BE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX.  BROAD EASTERLY JET STREAM ADVECTS MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SW INTO E PAC S OF 18N E OF 120W. 

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD 1034 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF BASIN EXTEND 
ITS RIDGE SE THROUGH 15N120W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE 
AND TROUGH ALONG MEXICO SIERRA MADRE PRODUCING STRONG NW TO N 
BREEZE JUST N OF 30N.  LOWER PRESSURES OVER SW CONUS RESULT IN 
FUNNELED FRESH SE TO S BREEZE WITHIN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 
25N.  WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON BOTH SIDES OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITHIN 18 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL TRAIN FROM SRN HEMISPHERE SPREAD 
NORTHWARD THROUGH ENTIRE E PAC BASIN.  SWELL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
BY LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD BUT MAY RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING 
WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED SHOALS...REEFS 
AND BEACHES. 

$$
WALLY BARNES