000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 11N86W TO 07N105W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 101W...60 NM OF AXIS FROM 
105W TO 117W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 131W TO 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 22N122W HAS RIDGE EXTEND ACROSS W 
HALF OF E PAC BASIN FROM SE ARIZONA TO 10N140W WITH VERY DRY AIR 
MASS ALOFT.  SECOND GYRE OVER SW TEXAS STRETCHES RIDGE NE BUT 
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING OVER MEXICO.  RIDGE MAINTAIN 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SURFACE THERMAL LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG 
MEXICO MOUNTAINOUS SPINE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
DRIFTING OFF OVER W COASTAL SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.  SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE BRING STRONG MOIST EASTERLY FLOW N AND ALONG 
ITCZ BUT LACK OF UPLIFT MECHANISMS PREVENT MORE CONVECTION FROM 
BUILDING UP. 

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD 1034 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW OF BASIN HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 15N115W.  WEAK TROUGH ALONG 97W FROM 06N TO 
15N HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FORM CONVECTION BUT 
STRONG NE SHEAR N OF 12N PREVENTS ITS DEVELOPMENT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED S OF 09N EMBEDDED IN ITCZ.  ONLY MINOR 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SO TROUGH 
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR FOR NEXT 48 HRS.    

TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND TROUGH ALONG 
MEXICO PRODUCING FRESH BREEZE E OF 122W AND BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COASTS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 24 HRS ALTHOUGH NW 
SWELL 8-10 FT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE SUN.  VERY LONG PERIOD 
S-SW SWELL TRAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE EQUATOR EXPECTED TO 
MERGE WITH ESTABLISHED NEW SWELLS N OF 23N PRODUCING HIGH AND 
CONFUSED SEAS.  SOUTHERN SWELL EVENTUALLY FORCE NW SWELL N OF 
32N BY SUN.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND 
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES. 

$$
WALLY BARNES