000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 07N92W TO 10N100W TO 08N120W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W 
AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W...AND BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ORIENTED IN 
AN E TO W AXIS WITH CENTERS NEAR 21N131W AND 21N120W DOMINATE 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH STRONG DEEP LAYERED 
SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS 
LOCATED W OF A LINE FROM FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 
23N111W TO 18N120W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 120W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE CIRCULATIONS TO 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE RIO 
GRANDE VALLEY NEAR 27N102W WHICH IS IMPACTING MEXICO AND MUCH OF 
THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. MOIST EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS S 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONES...GENERALLY S OF  
20N W OF 90W AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE WEST WITH TIME. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF 
THE AREA NEAR 41N150W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ALONG 30N136W TO 18N115W. THE WEAK 
TROUGH WHICH WAS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA 
HAS DISSIPATED ALONG 127W THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 15N100W TO 05N97W CONTINUES TO PERTURB THE ITCZ 
WITH SW SURFACE MONSOONAL FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE 
WAS SITUATED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WERE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE 
AND TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.   

AN AREA OF NW WINDS REMAIN N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 127W AND 
CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST N OF 30N OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE 
HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN TO 
11 FT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND 
SPREAD SOUTHWARD...SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A 
LONG PERIOD...20-21 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN CURRENTLY S OF 
22N W OF 110W AND THEN EXTENDING SE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES N 
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP OVER MOST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT AND SAT AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT 
WITH OPEN OCEAN SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 
LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE 
SOUTH FACING BEACHES IN THOSE AREAS. 

$$
COBB