000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 07N94W TO 10N100W TO 09N115W TO 07N130W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 97W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
240 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 91W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ORIENTED IN AN E 
TO W AXIS WITH CENTERS NEAR 20N132W AND 21N120W DOMINATE THE NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH STRONG DEEP LAYERED 
SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRY AIR 
ALOFT IS LOCATED W OF A LINE FROM FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA NEAR 23N110W TO 17N120W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE 
CIRCULATION TO 21N120W THEN INTO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IMPACTING MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE 
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. WITH A NEARLY CONTINUOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 20N. MOIST EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS S OF 
20N W OF 90W AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE WEST WITH TIME. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF 
THE AREA NEAR 40N151W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ALONG 30N135W TO 18N115W. A WEAK TROUGH 
IS ALL THAT REMAINS AT THE SURFACE OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE 
CELIA AND IS ANALYZED FROM 12N TO 16N ALONG 125W/126W. A 1734 
UTC ASCAT PASS STILL DEPICTED THE TROUGH AXIS WITH WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 97W/98W CONTINUES TO PERTURB THE 
ITCZ WITH SW SURFACE MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE TROUGH. THIS 
FEATURE WAS SITUATED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WERE UNFAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SURFACE 
CONVERGENCE AND TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ.   

AN AREA OF NW WINDS REMAIN N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 127W AND 
CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST N OF 30N OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE 
HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN TO 
11 FT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND 
SPREAD SOUTHWARD...SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A 
LONG PERIOD...20-21 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN CURRENTLY S OF 
20N W OF 110W AND THEN EXTENDING SE TO JUST N OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
AND REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SAT
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT WITH OPEN OCEAN SEAS OF 8 TO 
11 FT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG
THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES IN THOSE AREAS. 

$$
COBB