000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 10N95W TO 06N118W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM FROM 
AXIS FROM 85W TO 97W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
N OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 20N134W DOMINATES BASIN N OF 14N W OF 
117W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT.  WEAK HARD-TO-DEFINE TROUGH 
SPLITS RIDGE EASTERN EXTENSION SEPARATING IT FROM SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS PROVIDES A CONTINUOUS 
MOIST E FLOW S OF 14N OVER ITCZ.  SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES LITTLE 
IN THE WAY OF LIFT EXCEPT COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS MEANDERING 
ALONG ITCZ AND DISCUSSED IN PARAGRAPH BELOW.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW OF AREA EXTEND 
RIDGE AXIS SE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 18N W OF 120W.  WEAK 
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF CELIA...ALONG 125W FROM 11N TO 16N NO 
LONGER ABLE TO SUSTAIN FRESH BREEZE...BUT SUBSIDING 8 FT SEAS 
STILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SECOND TROUGH ALONG 95W FROM 05N 
TO 15N CONTINUES UNDER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT FAVORABLE FOR 
STRENGTHENING.  WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH 
REMAINS IN ITCZ.   

AREA OF NW WINDS ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS PEAKED AND 
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  SEAS TO 11 FT SPREAD S BUT 
SUBSIDE OVER NEXT 48 HRS. 

LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IMPACT 
WATERS S OF 10N AND EXPAND N THROUGH SAT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES