000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W FROM 07N TO 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 
KT. POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY DUE TO ABUNDANT MONSOONAL 
FLOW OVER THAT AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HOWEVER 
INDICATES ELEVATED VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N82W TO 07N87W TO 10N98W TO 
06N120W TO 08N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 90W AND FROM 4N TO 
12N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 13N139W. NW OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC LOCATED NEAR 
25N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 31N123W AND SW 
BEYOND 19N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W ARE VERY DRY AND 
RELATIVELY STABLE...WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS SEEN E OF 110W PARTLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF T.S. 
ALEX MOVING ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO...AND THE MONSOONAL FLOW.   

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED NW OF THE 
AREA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF 
CELIA...CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN NE WINDS 20 KT W OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. AN AREA OF NE WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE PAC 
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND S AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS 
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS THE SEAS CONTINUE 
SOUTHWARD.  

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
SOUTH WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 10N AND WILL EXPAND TO 16N OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
PAW