000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 03N TO 10N ALONG 93W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS ANY DEFINED SIGNATURE AT THE 
SURFACE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO 
ABUNDANT MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SE PACIFIC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY HOWEVER INDICATES ELEVATED VALUES IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 10N91W TO 09N110W TO 
08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SE ARIZONA ACROSS CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24N117W. SW OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 19N138W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 
33N116W AND SW BEYOND 18N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W ARE 
VERY DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE...WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF 110W WITH NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTROLLING 
WHICH IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW MOISTURE FROM 
HURRICANE ALEX CURRENTLY CENTERED INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA 
THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF 
CELIA...IS MAINTAINING NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 01/0524 UTC DEPICTED 
WINDS TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W WITH THIS 
FEATURE. THE AREA OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER 
THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION AREA WATERS AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY 
STRENGTHENS A BIT WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS. 

THE AREA BETWEEN 92W AND 107W IS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX. THE AREA IS COVERED 
WITH MAINLY MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POCKETS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ 
AXIS.  

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 110W WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVING OVER THE SW WATERS 
BY LATE THURSDAY AND SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY 
SATURDAY THAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 12 FT.  
 
$$
HUFFMAN