000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS....

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF CELIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB SURFACE 
LOW NEAR 16N124W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM 
IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 3N. POSITION IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AS THE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY MASKED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO HURRICANE ALEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N77W TO 08N82W TO 10N90W 
THEN RESUMES AT 10N95W TO 08N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 86W TO 88W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE 
E PAC WATERS TO NEAR 20N125W. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE 
BEYOND 13N119W AND SW BEYOND 18N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W 
ARE VERY DRY WITH ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 110W 
WITH NE UPPER FLOW. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE 
REMNANT LOW OF CELIA IS MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT TO THE NW OF THE 
SURFACE LOW. THE AREA OF NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER 
THE NE WATERS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD. 

THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 105W IS AN AREA OF ABUNDANCE OF 
TROPICAL MOSITURE BEING TRAINED INTO THE AREA OF HURRICANE ALEX. 
HOWEVER...THE AREA IS COVERED MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH SOME 
SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LIGHTNING DATA DOES NOT INDICATED ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME.  

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO CROSS THE 
EQUATOR OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NEW 
BATCH OF SW SWELLS SHOULD REACH THE EQUATOR BY EARLY THU 
BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT BY FRI.  
 
$$
PAW