000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS....

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF CELIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB SURFACE 
LOW NEAR 16N124W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM 
IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 3N. POSITION IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AS THE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY MASKED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO HURRICANE ALEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N77W TO 09N87W THEN 
RESUMES AT 13N100W TO 10N113W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO 
10N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE E 
PAC WATERS TO NEAR 14N130W. BEHIND THE TROUGH...AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N131W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE 
BEYOND 13N121W AND SW BEYOND 17N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W 
ARE VERY DRY WITH ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 110W 
WITH NE UPPER FLOW. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE 
REMNANT LOW OF CELIA IS MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT TO THE NW OF THE 
SURFACE LOW. THE AREA OF NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER 
THE NE WATERS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD. 

THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 105W IS AN AREA OF ABUNDANCE OF 
TROPICAL MOSITURE BEING TRAINED INTO THE AREA OF HURRICANE ALEX. 
HOWEVER...THE AREA IS COVERED MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH SOME 
SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LIGHTENING DATA DOES NOT INDICATED ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME.  

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS 
THE EQUATOR OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NEW 
BATCH OF SW SWELLS SHOULD REACH THE EQUATOR BY EARLY THU 
BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT BY FRI.  
 
$$
PAW