000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS....
LOW PRES CENTER...REMNANT OF CELIA 1009 MB...QUASI STATIONARY 
NEAR 16N124W.  LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL LINGERS WITH 20 TO 25 
KT WITHIN 120 NM NW OF CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
RESTRICTED TO 60 NM IN SW QUADRANT.  LOW PRES CENTER EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NW AND WEAKEN TO OPEN TROUGH WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 87W OFF W COAST OF COSTA RICA INTO E 
PAC.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM W OF WAVE 
AXIS. SLIGHTLY ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HINDERS WAVE 
DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS BUT 
MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N91W TO 12N120W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 133W-135W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 17N136W EXTENDS ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW E TO SECOND GYRE AT 24N103W.  ONLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
FROM 32N113W TO 19N122W SPLITS RIDGE IN TWO.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS TROUGH LIFT QUICKLY NE WED NIGHT LEAVING BOTH GYRES IN 
FULL CONTROL OF E PAC N OF 15N WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT.  
EASTERNMOST GYRE FORCES LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO PAC AND 
ITCZ E OF 112W...WHILE WESTERNMOST GYRE MAINTAINS OUTFLOW OVER 
REMNANTS OF CELIA.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 08N140W INDUCES DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AXIS FROM 
133W TO 135W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 22N108W WITH RIDGE 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH...REMNANT OF DARBY...ALONG 96W FROM 
13N TO 16N DRIFTING NE.  STRONG NW BREEZE WITHIN 120 NM W AND 
FRESH SW BREEZE WITHIN 60 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS.  TROUGH MOVES 
NE TOWARDS TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX PRESENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO.  
TROUGH DISSIPATES AS IT MERGES WITH ALEX OVER MAINLAND MEXICO 
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SYSTEMS TO 
WARRANT RAINFALL CONCERN. 

SURFACE RIDGE HAS BY NOW COLLAPSED BY INTRUSION OF WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 30N120W TO 24N128W JUST N OF REMNANTS OF CELIA WITH 
REMNANTS OF DARBY STILL LINGERING ALONG 96W.  RIDGE ESCAPED TO 
THE W EXPECTED TO REBUILD LATE THU OR FRI AFTER BOTH TROPICAL 
REMNANTS HAVE DISSIPATED AND TROUGH MOVED OUT OF E PAC. 

TROUGH SQUEEZES PRES GRADIENT AGAINST W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
RESULTING IN STRONG NW WINDS FOR NEXT 24-36 HRS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN FRINGES 
OF E PAC S OF 12N FROM 80W TO 115W WITHIN 48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES