000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS....
LOW PRES CENTER...REMNANT OF CELIA 1009 MB...QUASI STATIONARY 
NEAR 16N124W.  LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL LINGERS WITH 20 TO 25 
KT WITHIN 120 NM NW OF CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
RESTRICTED TO 60 NM IN SW QUADRANT.  LOW PRES CENTER EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NW AND WEAKEN TO OPEN TROUGH WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 86W OFF W COAST OF COSTA RICA INTO E 
PAC.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE AXIS. 
SLIGHTLY ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HINDERS WAVE DEVELOPMENT. 
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS BUT MIGHT NOT BE 
ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 13N98W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 132W TO 136W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 21N132W EXTENDS ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW E TO SECOND GYRE AT 24N103W.  ONLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
FROM 32N116W TO 20N124W SPLITS RIDGE IN TWO HALVES.  TROUGH LIFT 
QUICKLY NE WED NIGHT LEAVING BOTH GYRES IN FULL CONTROL OF E PAC 
N OF 15N.  EASTERNMOST GYRE FORCES LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE 
ALOFT INTO PAC AND ITCZ E OF 110W...WHILE WESTERNMOST GYRE 
MAINTAINS OUTFLOW OVER REMNANTS OF CELIA.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 06N140W INDUCES DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AXIS FROM 
132W TO 136W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 22N108W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO JUST NE OF REMNANTS OF CELIA WHICH CONTINUES TO 
HAVE WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  UPPER LEVEL NE 
WINDS DOMINATE AREA E OF 110W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH...REMNANT OF DARBY...ALONG 96W FROM 
11N TO 16N DRIFTING NE.  STRONG NW BREEZE WITHIN 240 NM W AND 
FRESH SW BREEZE WITHIN 120 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS.  TROUGH MOVES 
NE TOWARDS TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX PRESENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO.  
TROUGH AND ALEX EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO NEXT FEW 
DAYS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SYSTEMS TO WARRANT 
RAINFALL CONCERN. 

SURFACE RIDGE HAS BY NOW COLLAPSED BY INTRUSION OF WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 30N122W TO 24N133W JUST N OF REMNANTS OF CELIA WITH 
REMNANTS OF DARBY STILL LINGERING ALONG 96W.  RIDGE ESCAPED TO 
THE W WITH PLANS TO REBUILD BY LATE THU OR FRI AFTER BOTH 
TROPICAL REMNANTS HAVE DISSIPATED AND TROUGH MOVED OUT OF E PAC. 

TROUGH SQUEEZES PRES GRADIENT AGAINST W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
RESULTING IN STRONG NW WINDS FOR NEXT 24-36 HRS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN FRINGES 
OF E PAC S OF 12N FROM 80W TO 115W WITHIN 48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES