000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290354 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 29/0300...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 123.5W MOVING E OR 080 DEG AT 02 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND ONLY SKELETAL REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM ARE LEFT BEHIND. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W N OF 07N MOVING W AROUND 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 08N98W TO 11N120W TO 08N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 136W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER NE WATERS AND INTO THE SW U.S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH CAN BE FOUND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 30N108W TO 22N125W. THERE IS A 30-40 KT UPPER JET JUST E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH LIES FROM THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THROUGH 30N120W TO 26N122W. THE BROAD TROUGHING HERE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO ITS W OVER NW WATERS IS FORCED EASTWARD WHEN A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SWEEPS TO JUST N OF THE AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 33N150W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE...BECOMING A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FROM 20N TO 40N. THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING N TO NE 20 KT WINDS INTO N WATERS BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE N OF THE AREA AND N SWELL IS IMPINGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE E SIDE OF THE PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE IS ALSO PRODUCING NW TO N 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIES NEAR 17N130W...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FOUND JUST TO THE SE NEAR 15N124W. CELIA LIES JUST N OF THE 26 DEG CELSIUS ISOTHERM...AND CELIA HAS LOST ALL OF HER DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CELIA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WINDS TO 30 KT. THE POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF DARBY LIES WELL SE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N109W...UNDER STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...DARBY HAS BECOME ENGULFED IN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD WIND FIELD OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF DARBY. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO UNRAVEL BY TUE. IN ADDITION...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD SURFACING TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AND DARBY AND THE HIGHER AMBIENT PRES TO THE SOUTH IS ENHANCING SW TO W WINDS FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W AS SEEN IN THE 1536 AND 1716 UTC ASCAT PASSES. ANOTHER PULSE OF REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS CROSSED 10N AND HAS REACHED THE SHORES OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS JUST OFFSHORE ARE AROUND 7 FT WITH 17-19 SECOND PERIODS. THIS SWELL WILL STRETCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTS THROUGH TUE. $$ SCHAUER