000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

AT 28/2100...CELIA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 123.8W MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 2 KT. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. RELATIVELY 
WARM-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF CELIA. CELIA IS EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVERNIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

AT 28/2100...DARBY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 98.3W MOVING E OR 080 DEG AT 11 KT. 
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 
KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. 
DARBY HAS BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE WARM TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED NEAR DARBY ARE 
SEPARATED FROM ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER...LYING BETWEEN 30 NM AND 90 
NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE REMNANT LOW OF DARBY IS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W N OF 07N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 08N86W TO 10N95W TO 
08N105W TO 11N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 88W AND 
97W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 45 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW IS OVER THE SW CONUS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM NW MEXICO NEAR 30N110W THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 
26N122W AND SW TO 20N127W. A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE LIES NEAR 
THE TAIL OF THIS TROUGH NEAR 17N130W...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
CELIA FOUND JUST TO THE SE NEAR 15N124W. A 30-50 KT WESTERLY JET 
LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 21N107W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NE 
ACROSS MEXICO. THE POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF DARBY LIES SE OF 
THIS ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N98W. DARBY HAS BECOME ENGULFED IN THE 
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD WIND 
FIELD OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
PRIMARILY E OF REMNANT LOW DARBY...CLOSE TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR.

AT THE SURFACE...1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA NEAR 39N154W 
EXTENDS RIDGING SE THAT COVERS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 115W. 
THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NW 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. A REMNANT 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLIPPING N WATERS AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE 
FOLLOWED BY N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT BY LATE MON AS THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N SWELL IS ALREADY INCREASING SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN N WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMAINS OF THIS 
FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO TIGHT SE OF THE TROPICAL STORM 
DARBY WITH THE SW MONSOON FLOW ENHANCED BY THE DEEPENING LOW 
PRESSURE OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX IN THE E BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. ANOTHER PULSE OF REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL IS 
CROSSING 08N AT THE MOMENT AND SHOULD BE REACHING THE SHORES OF 
WESTERN PANAMA WITH 17-19 SECOND PERIODS. THIS SWELL WILL 
STRETCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTS 
THROUGH TUE.

$$
SCHAUER/GR