000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280351 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS NEAR 15.6N 124.1W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W-SW OR 250 DEG AT 02 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM SE AND 75 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CELIA. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MON AND A REMNANT LOW PRES SYSTEM BY TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 0300 UTC MOVING E-NE OR 070 DEG AT 04 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM SW AND 150 NM NW QUADRANTS OF DARBY. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUE...WITH DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AS THE SHEAR OVER DARBY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WHATEVER REMAINS OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE S COAST OF MEXICO. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 09N ALONG 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 75 NM INLAND OF THE W SHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS INLAND OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 11N93W TO 09N107W TO 12N118W TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO 07N E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM N AND 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 119W AS WELL AS WITHIN 30 NM N AND 75 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND STRETCHES FROM 28N114W TO 24N126W WITH A 30-40 KT JET FOUND ON ITS LEADING EDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA NEAR 21N112W. SOME OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM CELIA IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE N ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE AND INTO THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE N-NE. S OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N118W. FARTHER W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR 04N135W HAS A NORTHWESTERLY 30-40 KT JET ON ITS NE SIDE. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS ENHANCING A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 130W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N112W ACROSS MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N98W AND THEN OVER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TROPICAL STORM DARBY LIES UNDER THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONIC GYRE. THE OVERALL ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS QUITE LARGE...DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 120W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AND CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS FANNING OUT OVER THE AREA N OF 09N AND E OF 100W. FARTHER E...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ INCLUDING OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ESPECIALLY THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOUND OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND S TO APPROXIMATELY 90 NM OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 30N137W TO 26N127W TO 24N116W. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO 35N150W. THE REMNANTS OF THIS COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO PUSH S...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASING OVER N WATERS AND BRINGING N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W BY TUE EVENING. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED N OF THE AREA BY THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE WINDS...WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT IN N SWELL BY MON EVENING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE GENERATED MULTIPLE SWELL FIELDS RESULTING IN CONFUSED SEAS OVER MOST OF THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 135W BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY TUE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 20 SECONDS AND COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT ARE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND WILL ARRIVE ON THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE MON. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS DRIVING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE WINDS SHOULD ABATE TONIGHT AS ALEX MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR LESS SIPHONING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. $$ SCHAUER