000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS NEAR 15.7N 124.0W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-SW OR 255 DEG AT 04 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER OF CELIA. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MON AND A REMNANT LOW PRES SYSTEM BY TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 102.2W AT 2100 UTC MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 04 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 150 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS OF DARBY UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WITH DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AS THE SHEAR OVER DARBY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WHATEVER REMAINS OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE S COAST OF MEXICO. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 07N ALONG 93W IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF 12N. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N79W TO 07N85W TO 11N95W TO 08N108W TO 13N119W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND STRETCHES FROM 30N114W TO 24N126W WITH A 30-40 KT JET FOUND ON ITS LEADING EDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA NEAR 18N114W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM CELIA IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE N ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE AND INTO THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE N-NE. S OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N116W. FARTHER W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR 05N135W HAS A NORTHWESTERLY 30-40 KT JET ON ITS NE SIDE. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS ENHANCING A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 130W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N114W ACROSS MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N96W AND THEN OVER ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TROPICAL STORM DARBY LIES UNDER THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONIC GYRE. THE OVERALL ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS QUITE LARGE...DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 120W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AND CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS FANNING OUT OVER THE AREA N OF 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. FARTHER E...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 85W INCLUDING OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AT THE SURFACE...1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N141W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 30N138W TO 25N130W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA S OF 28N. THE TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE GENERATED MULTIPLE SWELL FIELDS RESULTING IN CONFUSED SEAS OVER MOST OF THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 135W BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY TUE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 20 SECONDS AND COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TODAY AND ARRIVE ON THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE MON. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE N WATERS MON AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS DRIVING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE WINDS SHOULD ABATE TONIGHT AS ALEX MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR LESS SIPHONING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. $$ SCHAUER/COBB