000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 1500 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 03 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF CELIA. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MON AND A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRES BY TUE...AND LIKELY DISSIPATING LATE WED. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 103.0W AT 1500 UTC AND IS STATIONARY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE S AND SW SEMICIRCLES OF DARBY. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INVOLVED IN THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX NOW POISED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THUS THE WEAKENING DARBY WILL BE STEERED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE COAST OF MEXICO AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THEN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 07N ALONG 93W IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS HAS SHIFTED N OF THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 107W AS BROAD MONSOON LIKE SW FLOW TO THE S OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND TROPICAL STORM DARBY COVERS THE PACIFIC E OF 107W. THE AXIS BECOMES EVIDENT FROM 12N107W TO 12N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N110W AND CONTINUES SE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 24N107W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA NEAR 19N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST THROUGH CELIA TO A CREST NEAR 19N140W. UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 140W AND 150W...IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 20N TO 25N W OF 137W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CELIA IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER AND WAS SURROUNDED BY DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR. S OF THE RIDGE A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 12N115W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING SW TO NEAR 10N118W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF 110W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W SW OVER TROPICAL STORM DARBY. THE OVERALL ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS QUITE LARGE...DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA OF 108W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AND CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS FANNING OUT OVER THE AREA N OF 03N E OF 105W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA 1027 MB NEAR 27N141W RIDGES SE THROUGH 32N138W TO 20N118W. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 24N. THE TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE GENERATED MULTIPLE SWELL FIELDS RESULTING IN CONFUSED SEAS OVER MOST OF THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 95W AND 133W BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 20 SECONDS AND COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TODAY AND ARRIVE ON THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA MON. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE N WATERS MON NIGHT. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DRIVING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE WINDS SHOULD ABATE TONIGHT AS ALEX MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. $$ COBB