000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS NEAR 15.9N 123.4W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 05 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MON AND A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND LIKELY DISSIPATING WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 103.3W AT 0900 UTC DRIFTING W OR 270 DEG AT 03 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INVOLVED IN THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ATLC STORM ALEX...WHICH WILL STEER THE WEAKENING DARBY REMNANTS NE IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER N OF 07N ALONG 92W IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 13 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE E OF 106W BUT SEEMS TO HUG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AXIS BECOMES EVIDENT FROM 11N106W TO 04N140W...BUT LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH ONLY INTERMITTENT CONVECTION NOTED. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN OVER THE AREA E OF 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N112W AND CONTINUES SE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO A BASE AT 24N109W. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS NEAR 18N117W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 11N147W. UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 140W AND 150W...IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 17N TO 22N W OF 136W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CELIA IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 240 NM OF 18N122W. S OF THE RIDGE A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 12N115W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING SW TO NEAR 10N118W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF 110W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W SW OVER TROPICAL STORM DARBY. THE OVERALL ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS QUITE LARGE...DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA OF 110W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ALEX CONVECTION AND CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS FANNING OUT OVER THE AREA N OF 03N E OF 103W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA RIDGES E ALONG 32N138W TO 20N118W. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NW WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 20 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE GENERATED MULTIPLE SWELL FIELDS RESULTING IN CONFUSED SWELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA SURROUNDING THE CYCLONES... ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 95W AND 133W BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE N WATERS MON NIGHT. BY THEN REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS DRIVING NW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. $$ NELSON