000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262203 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS NEAR 15.7N 122.2W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 07 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER OF CELIA.SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE OF CELIA HAS FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH CELIA DIMINISHING TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT AND TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. A JASON-2 ALTIMETER PASS AT 1500 UTC CONFIRMED THAT THE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FEET HAS SHRUNK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE DARBY WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 102.8W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 02 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF DARBY WHILE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF DARBY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DARBY HAS ENCOUNTERED EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DARBY. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER N OF 07N ALONG 89W IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 11N AND INTO THE COASTAL REGIONS FROM EL SALVADOR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HEAVY RAIN HERE AND WITH ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX IN THE NW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N90W TO 14N98W TO 08N106W TO 13N115W TO 06N132W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ASIDE FROM HURRICANES CELIA AND DARBY...THE FEATURE IMPACTING THE LARGEST PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE FOUND S OF 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W AND OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 05N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS SWELL WILL DAMPEN AS IT TREKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A NEW SURGE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE...WILL MOVE INTO SE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON AND RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN TO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. RIDGING EMANATING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 37N143W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA. THE STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S. AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT NW TO N WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS CONFIRM THESE CONDITIONS. THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUN. THE RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS REDUCES THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 1616 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NW WINDS SIPHONING THOUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND CONVERGING WITH 20 KT SW TO W FLOW S OF THE GULF CENTERED AROUND 10N. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPLYING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT CONTINUES W THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ SCHAUER