000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS NEAR 15.6N 121.5W AT 1500 UTC MOVING W NW OR 295 DEG AT 08 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINED 974 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER SURROUNDING EYE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 5 NM DIAMETER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 105 NM NW AND WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS FILLING AND BECOMING ILL DEFINED AS THE HURRICANE WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH CELIA DIMINISHING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATER. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE DARBY WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 102.9W AT 1500 UTC MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 03 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED REMAINED AT 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM NW OF CENTER...WITH AN EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. DARBY REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE AND APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE IN THE PAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES. DARBY IS EXECUTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THEN ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER N OF 05N ALONG 87/88W IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 08N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 86W AND 95W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 10N81W TO 11N87W TO 13N98W...THEN CONTINUED FROM 11N122W TO 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N113W AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N125W AND INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 21N143W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 35N141W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED S OF THE ITCZ AT 05N134W. HURRICANE CELIA'S UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 18N113W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER CELIA TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 12N141W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED EARLIER ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 137W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N139W TO 15N137W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING HURRICANE CELIA FANS OUT OVER THE TROPICS FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED W OF 105W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W WITH A RIDGE SW OVER PACIFIC HURRICANE DARBY. THE OVERALL ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS QUITE LARGE AND DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA OF 95W. THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEARLY IN PHASE WITH A NEWLY FORMED ATLC TROPICAL STORM ALEX. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ALEX CONVECTION AND CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS FANNING OUT OVER THE AREA N OF 03N E OF 107W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA RIDGES E ALONG OVER THE SUBTROPICS AND HAS INCREASED THE N WINDS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 20 KT. NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE W OF HURRICANE CELIA. THE HURRICANES HAVE GENERATED MULTIPLE SWELL FIELDS RESULTING IN CONFUSED SWELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA SURROUNDING THE CYCLONES... ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD N COVERING ALL THE WATERS BETWEEN 100W AND 130W BY 24 HOURS WITH SOME SOUTHERLY SWELL...SEAS TO 8 FT... CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL. $$ STRIPLING/MN