000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260953 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 15.3N 120.7W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W NW OR 295 DEG AT 09 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER SURROUNDING EYE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 10 NM DIAMETER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER COOLER WATER. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 102.7W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 05 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER SURROUNDING 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. DARBY WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER N OF 05N ALONG 87W IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 09N TO 15N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 08N77W TO 10N95W TO 10N122W TO 09N140W BUT IS DISTORTED BETWEEN 98W AND 110W BY THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N90W TO 10N95W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N102W AND ALSO 12N119W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N113W AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N125W AND INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 21N143W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 35N141W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED S OF THE ITCZ AT 05N134W. HURRICANE CELIA'S UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 18N113W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER CELIA TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 12N141W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED EARLIER ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 137W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N139W TO 15N137W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING HURRICANE CELIA FANS OUT OVER THE TROPICS FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED W OF 105W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W WITH A RIDGE SW OVER PACIFIC HURRICANE DARBY. THE OVERALL ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS QUITE LARGE AND DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA OF 95W. THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEARLY IN PHASE WITH A NEWLY FORMED ATLC TROPICAL STORM ALEX. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ALEX CONVECTION AND CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS FANNING OUT OVER THE AREA N OF 03N E OF 107W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA RIDGES E ALONG OVER THE SUBTROPICS AND HAS INCREASED THE N WINDS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 20 KT. NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE W OF HURRICANE CELIA. THE HURRICANES HAVE GENERATED MULTIPLE SWELL FIELDS RESULTING IN CONFUSED SWELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA SURROUNDING THE CYCLONES... ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD N COVERING ALL THE WATERS BETWEEN 100W AND 130W BY 24 HOURS WITH SOME SOUTHERLY SWELL...SEAS TO 8 FT... CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL. $$ NELSON