000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260352 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 26/0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 14.8N 119.7W MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. CELIA IS WEAKENING AS ITS TRACKS W OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 26/0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 102.2W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER OF DARBY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE BUT REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 84W N OF 08N INTO COSTA RICA AND THROUGH NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS TOWARD ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES PRIMARILY W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS INTO PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 09N TO 15N. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N86W TO 12N97W TO 10N103W TO 15N114W TO 08N124W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 102W AS WELL AS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30123W AND CONTINUES SW TO 26N140W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THINNING OUT N OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE UPPER JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO WESTERN WATERS. THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM THE CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THE REMNANTS OF BLAS WHICH LIES W OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS N OF CELIA NEAR 23N114W WITH A RIDGE TO THE E ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N130W...WITH THE RIDGING COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 13N TO 22N W OF CELIA TO 135W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE AND CELIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES TO THE E OF DARBY. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 17N105W TO AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. DARBY IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 20N. FRESH NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER W WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. ASIDE FROM CELIA AND DARBY...CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS HAVE BROUGHT 8 TO 10 FT TO THE AREA S OF 21N BETWEEN 108W AND 131W AS WELL AS S OF 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 108W. THIS SWELL WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF THE ITCZ AND W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE BY TOMORROW EVENING. $$ SCHAUER