000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252159 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 25/2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 14.2N 119.0W MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. CELIA IS WEAKENING AS ITS TRACKS W OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 25/2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 101.5W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. DARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER OF DARBY. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES BETWEEN 180 NM AND 300 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF DARBY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEGINNING SAT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W INTERSECTS THE ITCZ OVER NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS POPPING UP OVER LAND FROM WESTERN PANAMA NORTH INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FOUND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA ASSOCIATED WITH A 1005 MB LOW PRES CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N86W TO 13N97W TO 11N118W TO 09N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 89W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30125W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 28N127W TO 24N140W. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL NOTED N OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE UPPER JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO WESTERN WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS N OF CELIA NEAR 22N113W WITH A RIDGE TO THE SE BETWEEN CELIA AND DARBY AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF CELIA TO 135W. CELIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES TO THE E OF DARBY. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 18N104W TO AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DARBY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 20N. FRESH NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER W WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN AREA OR INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 136W. $$ SCHAUER