000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 25/1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 13.8N 118.1W MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER SURROUNDING 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS ITS TRACKS W OVER COOLER WATER...AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 25/1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 101.2W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 06 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. DARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER SURROUNDING 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W MAY EXTEND S INTO THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 06N. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N85W TO 11N95W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N119W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N124W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 29N135W. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS N OF CELIA NEAR 22N115W WITH A RIDGE TO THE SE BETWEEN CELIA AND THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 16N110W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW...AND COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF CELIA TO 140W. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS BETWEEN CELIA AND DARBY WITH AXIS ALONG 106W/107W N OF 15N. THIS TROUGH IS CONNECTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER NE MEXICO. DARBY IS APPROACHING THIS TROUGH AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. UNDER THIS PATTERN...A CONTINUED DECELERATION OF DARBY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER AS INDICATED IN THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONAL WATERS PARTICULARLY N OF 18N. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANT OF BLAS...EXTENDS FROM 10N138W TO 17N137W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE STILL OBSERVED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF AREA IN 24 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 140W. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HURRICANE CELIA SPINS DOWN. $$ GR