000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250954 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 13.4N 117.0W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH EYE DIAMETER ABOUT 20 NM. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS ITS TRACKS W OVER COOLER WATER. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 100.7W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 06 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 35 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER...SURROUNDING A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. DARBY WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AND OVER WARM WATERS FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THUS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS THE A WEAKENING TREND. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W MAY EXTEND S INTO THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 06N AS CONVECTION IS NOW FLARING S OF PANAMA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N85W TO 12N96W TO 10N120W TO 10N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF 07.5N81W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N122W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THIS TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 28N W OF 132W. UPPER MOISTURE THAT WAS SPREADING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY EVAPORATED IN THE VERY DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE AREA FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 133W. ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW OVER CELIA IS IMPRESSIVE...THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS WITHIN 480 NM E OF CENTER BUT ONLY WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM W OF CENTER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM CELIA CRESTS NEAR 08N140W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION SPREADS N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EVAPORATING NEAR 18N131W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED S OF 20N W OF 120W. AN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEEPENED S OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO WITH A BASE NEAR 20N100W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W RIDGES WSW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 16N100W. HURRICANE DARBY IS MOVING W JUST TO THE S OF THIS RIDGE...WITH ITS DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N AND NE ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER OLD MEXICO ALONG 100W WHERE IT THEN WRAPS INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEXICAN UPPER TROUGH. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICS ELSEWHERE E OF HURRICANE DARBY WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 102W AND 70W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA RIDGES E ALONG 32N142W TO 20N110W. THE REMNANT TROUGH OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS IS STILL EVIDENT FROM 12N137W TO 18N137W WITH NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 127W. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS W OF THE AREA THESE ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 135W. THE HURRICANES HAVE GENERATED MULTIPLE SWELL FIELDS RESULTING IN CONFUSED SWELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA SURROUNDING THE CYCLONES...ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 122W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD N TO ALONG 28N NEAR 120W BY 48 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 140W. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HURRICANE CELIA SPINS DOWN. $$ NELSON