000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250401 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 25/0300 UTC THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 13.1N 115.9W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB. THE EYE OF CELIA CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. CELIA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVERNIGHT UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. CELIA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SUN AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 25/0300 UTC THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY IS NEAR 13.2N 100.0W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES FROM CENTER. VERY SLOW...MINIMAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 09N86W TO 12N96W TO 07N120W TO 10N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 87W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N125W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 25N134W TO 24N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NW OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH ALOFT REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS N OF HURRICANE CELIA NEAR 19N114W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE BETWEEN CELIA AND HURRICANE DARBY WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 12N126W. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LOW CENTER NEAR 26N89W AND A TROUGH STRETCHING W-SW OVER MEXICO TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR 23N101W AND THEN S TO 17N102W. AN ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH NEAR 18N85W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE W TO 16N97W. DARBY IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EMANATES FROM A 1031 MB CENTER NEAR 36N157W AND ENVELOPS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 113W. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE W AS AN OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N136W TO 12N137W WITH NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT CONTINUES W AROUND 12 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 12N W OF 93W WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ SCHAUER