000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....
AT 24/2100 UTC THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 12.8N 
114.7W MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. THE EYE OF CELIA IS CLEARLY VISIBLE 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS 
MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
CENTER. CELIA IS FORECAST TO REACH 120 KT OVERNIGHT UNDER A 
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. 
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. CELIA IS 
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SUN AFTERNOON. 
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AT 24/2100 UTC THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY IS NEAR 12.9N 99.3W 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 980 MB. DARBY CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL BUT 
SYMMETRIC CDO WITH A PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURE ON ITS WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR. REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 08N78W TO 
07N80W TO 13N91W TO 07N117W TO 10N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 
87W...WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 81W...AND WITHIN 75 
NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N126W 
AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 25N133W TO 24N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS THINNING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NW OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. 
THIS TROUGH ALOFT REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER 
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W. EXCEPT FOR THE 
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR 
W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 120W.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS N OF HURRICANE CELIA NEAR 19N114W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE BETWEEN CELIA AND HURRICANE 
DARBY WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
NEAR 16N122W. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 26N88W WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING 
W-SW OVER MEXICO THROUGH 24N100W TO 18N103W. DARBY IS CURRENTLY 
MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W BUT IS APPROACHING 
THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EMANATES FROM A 1031 MB CENTER 
NEAR 36N157W AND ENVELOPS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 113W. THE 
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE 
W AS AN OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N133W TO 10N137W WITH NE 
WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 10 FT 
OVER THE AREA S OF 12N W OF 95W WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
SCHAUER