000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUN 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 24/1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 12.5N 113.9W MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SYMMETRIC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE EYE OF CELIA HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. CELIA IS FORECAST TO REACH 110 KT THIS EVENING DUE TO A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE WEAKENING OF CELIA INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 120 HOURS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 24/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 98.7W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. DARBY HAS A SMALL BUT SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DARBY TO REACH 80 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 10N87W TO 14N95W THEN RESUMES AT 08N114W TO 10N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 90W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N129W AND CONTINUES SW TO WELL BEYOND 24N140W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF THIS TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N135W TO 28N141W. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST N OF HURRICANE CELIA WITH A RIDGE TO THE SE BETWEEN CELIA AND THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 15N101W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 15N122W. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. AN UPPER CYCLONIC IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING S OVER THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 16N100W. DARBY IS APPROACHING THIS TROUGH AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. UNDER THIS PATTERN...A CONTINUED DECELERATION OF DARBY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE N WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 16N W OF 116W. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS HAS WEAKENED TO AN OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N133W TO 09N135W WITH NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TILL THE TROUGH SHIFTS W OF 140W IN 48 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ GR