000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 12.6N 112.8W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
150 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. EASTERLY SHEAR IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALLOWING CELIA TO STRENGTHEN A 
LITTLE MORE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST N OF DUE W AROUND A DEEP 
LAYERED RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 98.0W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OVER SE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR 
STRENGTHENING AND DARBY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON 
LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W 6N100W 10N110W 09N130W 7N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N130W TO 
25N134W TO BEYOND 24N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NW OF THIS TROUGH.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SE OF THE TROUGH 
CENTERED NEAR 20N113W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS FROM 15N130W TO 6N140W. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVES COVERS THE AREA W OF 120W.

AN UPPER CYCLONIC CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W WITH 
A TROUGH S OVER THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 15N100W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA AND TROPICAL STORM 
DARBY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OPF 20N W OF 115W.
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS HAS WEAKENED 
TO AN OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 18N131W TO 12N134W WITH NE 
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
TILL THE TROUGH W OF THE W OF OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT
OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS