000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240306 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUN 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 12.4N 111.5W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM SE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER SURROUNDING AN INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE EYE ABOUT 18 NM DIAMETER. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALLOWING CELIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST N OF DUE W AROUND A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 97.0W AT 0300 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND DARBY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THU. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N110W TO 07N140W. EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N134W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N121W AND CONTINUES SW TO WELL BEYOND 24N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF THIS TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 33N95W HAS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 28N112W TO OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC CRESTING NEAR 20N128W. A UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 20N130W TO 06N140W WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION EVAPORATES OVER THE AREA S OF 10N. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N111W TO THE EQUATOR AT 120W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 21N99W WITH A TROUGH S OVER THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 15N99W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA AND TROPICAL STORM DARBY. THE RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 05N E OF 116W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NW OF AREA RIDGES E FROM 28N140W TO 18N118W. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS HAS WEAKENED TO AN OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N133W TO 22N128W WITH NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TILL THE TROUGH SHIFTS W OF 140W IN 48 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ NELSON